OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s nomination of seven Senate candidates is reordering the core political dynamics of the Red Chamber.
On paper, independent members, including those named Friday, now hold 46 seats in the 105-seat upper house, three more than the Opposition Conservative majority of 42 seats.
Seventeen remaining vacancies are to be filled by year’s end with more independents, further revising the old calculus for getting government legislation through the chamber.
The ranks of the non-aligned include the 26 Liberal senators unceremoniously dropped from the Liberal party caucus by in 2014. Despite the snub, experts generally agree the “independent Liberals” still espouse Liberal values and are likely — but not inevitably — to support the legislation of a newly elected Liberal majority government.
Two Conservative senators announced last week they, too, will sit as independents and have reportedly joined four other independents to form a working group, possibly a precursor to an independent caucus.
Trudeau’s stated goal to return the scandal-plagued Senate to its intended role as an independent chamber of sober second thought is clearly underway. But at what potential cost to his government?
“When he decided that he wanted a non-partisan Senate, you have to give Justin Trudeau credit because he must have known that was going to be very risky. When you have a majority who are non-partisan, there will be times when your legislations will be, not completely killed, but delayed,” says Errol Mendez, professor of constitutional and international law at the University of Ottawa.
Mendes, who is to testify in April before a Senate committee investigating ways to modernize the institution, expects to see more Conservatives claim independent status as well.
“Given the fact that we already have some slippage from the Conservative holdings, what you may start seeing, except for the really hard-bitten Conservative appointees, is more of the Conservative senators saying, ‘We can’t stand on the wrong side of history, let’s try and make this work because ultimately, we’re recovering from the worst stain in the credibility in the history of the institution since 1867’.
“I have a feeling you may actually start seeing a majority of the senators acting as the Supreme Court of Canada wanted them to act as, which is to be complimentary to the House of Commons, as a body of sober second thought regardless of the partisanship that got them there in the first place.” (The 2014 Supreme Court reference on the Senate said its fundamental nature and role is as a complementary legislative chamber of sober second thought.)
You may actually start seeing a majority of the senators acting as the Supreme Court of Canada wanted them to act.
Senate nominee Ratna Omidvar, one of three new members to represent Ontario, says being able to sit as an independent, “had everything to do with my decision to accept this appointment,” she told CBC News Friday.
“We’ve had a Senate which has been hamstrung by partisanship in many ways. Not being bound by partisan policy, being independent, being able to exercise your voice based on your values, I think this is a step in the right direction.
“I function best when I’m able to look at things from my point of view and come to my conclusion. I’ve seen things go by the side when you’re in a box, and we’re not in a box.”
Pauline Beange, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, says senators may start to restructure the chamber into new voting blocs, “some kind of power brokers in the Senate that we haven’t seen before. Something is going to fill the political vacuum.”
Beange believes there is no short-term danger for the government and its legislation, given the presumed loyalty of the senators who are Liberal.
Longer-term, however, she’s wonders how a Senate dominated by fully independent members would engage with a Conservative majority government.
“Then, would we just see policies and bills stymied?”
In a statement Friday, the leader of the Opposition in the Senate, Sen. Claude Carignan, said “real reform in the Senate has been happening from within and has been led by Conservatives.
“We will persist with our hard work to modernize this institution to bolster accountability, transparency and efficiency — this is paramount. It’s this type of openness, taking responsibility for our actions, and respect for taxpayers, that inspire Canadians’ faith and trust in our valued institution.”
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