Forget — or, at least, tamp down your expectations for— the first Question Period of the new sitting: it’s virtually always a major anti-climax, as it takes everyone — opposition MPs and ministers alike — a few days to reacclimatize themselves to the setting. In the meantime, here are a few other upcoming firsts for which Kady O’Malley thinks will be well worth keeping both eyes peeled for:
1. The first time the government actually wants the Senate to do something, only to discover it has no power there
Clik here to view.
I’ve already written at length about why, for my money, the upper house is the Chamber to watch when the curtain lifts on the new sitting, but it’s worth noting again how wonderfully unprecedented a situation this is.
We have a governing party without a single official representative on the front bench, although that may soon change, depending on how long it takes the newly struck Senate advisory committee to put forward a starter kit of five appointees to fill vacancies in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba. (The Liberals have indicated that one of those newbies will be asked to act as its procedural proxy.)
Even after the first batch of independent senators arrives, however, the government will still be very much in the minority in the Senate, even if you assume the Senate Liberals will likely side with their former caucus colleagues on most matters. (An assumption that may well be overly optimistic, which is one of the other reasons why the dynamics in the Senate are going to be so fascinating to map out.)
In any case, sooner or later, there will almost certainly be a showdown between the Chambers over a major government initiative.
2. The first (and subsequent) meeting of the promised super-special parliamentary committee on electoral reform
Clik here to view.
To be clear, the debate itself is already well underway — in fact, it’s been simmering away for years — but thanks to the Liberals’ campaign pledge to rewrite the federal ballot process, it’s about to take centre stage on Parliament Hill for the first time in — possibly ever, actually — and I’m very much looking forward to see how it all turns out. Will it represent a new era of thoughtful but lively examination of the state of Canadian democracy? Or a hyperpartisan train wreck gong show at the centre of a dumpster fire? We’ll soon find out!
3. The first outburst of old-school procedural shenanigans
Clik here to view.
Imagine, if you can, the reaction in the House the very first time Government House Leader Dominic LeBlanc puts forward a motion to limit debate on a contentious legislative proposal.
Oh, the cries of outrage! The hammering of the desks! The pointed readings into the record of comments made by MPs during past debates, both in support of or against the use of such House mechanisms depending on where that MP sat during the previous Parliament! (The New Democrats, of course, will be exempt from that particular tactic, which is one of the few benefits in not switching sides after an election.)
On a similar note, the time will come when the Liberals first face off against an opposition-launched filibuster, or marathon voting session. Will they grit — no pun intended — their teeth and just hope the other side runs out of time or energy or warm bodies willing to keep their protest alive? Or bring down the hammer as only a governing party with a majority can do with such decisiveness?
4. The first real — or, for that matter, really ridiculous — point of order or privilege on which newly elected House Speaker Geoff Regan is obliged to weigh in
Clik here to view.
Will it be a landmark battle over the supremacy and independence of Parliament? Or a spat between MPs over who was late for what vote and whether he’s excused because his underwear were too tight? During the abbreviated pre-holiday sitting, we saw Regan take on hecklers during Question Period, but the real test of a speaker isn’t just his ability to keep the cacophony in the House to a dull roar during the 45 minutes a day that all eyes — or at least more eyes — are on the Chamber, but how he manages the after-hours gripes and grizzling, as well as more substantive matters of parliamentary concern.
5. The first Conservative MP to throw his or her hat into the leadership race
Clik here to view.
While the party executive haven’t yet fired the starting pistol that will signal the official launch of what is bound to be one of the most hotly contested races in recent federal political history, we do have a date — May 27, 2017, in case you missed the news — which means we’ll likely see at least a few hopefuls quit the hemming and hawing and formally announce their intentions, and at least one of them will likely be a sitting MP. (Jason Kenney, Tony Clement, Lisa Raitt and Michelle Rempel, come on down! When you’re ready, that is. No pressure!)
For those of us watching from the gallery, it will be nearly as fascinating to watch how interim chief Rona Ambrose handles the prospect of having multiple high-profile MPs hitting the campaign trail — both out on the hustings and (informally, of course) inside the caucus room.
6. The first time the MP for Calgary Heritage poses a question in the House
Clik here to view.
Actually, stretch that: the first time the MP for Calgary Heritage — who is, if you haven’t already guessed, former prime minister Stephen Harper — says or does anything in his new capacity as opposition backbencher, whether temporarily filling a seat at committee or rising during after-hours House debate.
After all, if he’s going to stick around — which, depending on what line of speculation you believe re: his intention to quietly step down — you’ve got to think eventually he’ll want to make himself heard if and when an issue near and dear to his heart comes up. In any case, as he doesn’t seem to have any desire to hit the political panel circuit, we’ll just have to hope that he doesn’t disappear behind the curtains entirely, save for the occasional mandated appearance during votes.
7. The first crocus to poke its head up on the parliamentary lawn
Yes, even though we haven’t made it through January. Hope springs eternal and all that.
******
Meanwhile, not everything on my own personal watchlist involves a first. There are any number of dangling plotlines likely to spill into the new year, like:
8. The final judgement in the trial of Senator Mike Duffy
Clik here to view.
Aside from the closing arguments slated for next month, the courtroom dramatics are over, but the verdict is still very much up in the air, with speculation running the gamut from complete and utter exoneration to conviction on at least a few charges. There’s no way of knowing how long it will take Ontario Justice Charles Vaillancourt to come out with his decision, but it’s a good bet that we’ll all be back at court when he does. (Former senator Mac Harb, who is set to be tried on similar charges related to living and housing allowances, will likely be keeping a close eye on the judge’s findings as well, as might those whose files were forwarded to the RCMP last year.)
9. The uncertain future of the NDP
Clik here to view.
Are reports of the party’s imminent demise exaggerated, or underreported? Will Tom Mulcair still be leader after the snow melts for good? Will the self-styled “progressive opposition” find itself back on the margins of debate after being demoted to third party? Will supporters still shell out record-breaking levels of cash? What about those satellite office expenses? Will it actually end up in court or will it be quietly settled behind the closed doors of the super-secret Board of Internal Economy that oversees MP and Hill expenses?
10. The super-secret Board of Internal Economy itself
Will the Liberals keep their promise to amend the law to allow the committee to meet in public unless dealing with legitimately confidential material?
11. The budget
Clik here to view.
Will it drop in February, or will Finance Minister Bill Morneau push it off until March — or even April? Will it be as deficit-acular as promised/threatened? Or even moreso than Andrew Coyne in his darkest moments could possibly have imagined? Will Morneau wear new shoes? Will we all tear off to Google to figure out how much he paid, only to find out that it’s annoyingly reasonable unless we want to pretend that ministers buying shoes at all is a sign that the old days of egregious Liberal entitlement are back?
All that other stuff: Physician-assisted dying! Legalization of marijuana! Canada’s role in ongoing anti-ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria! Parliamentary oversight of Canada’s intelligence service! And that’s just a sampling of the Big Issues that we know are on the table: there’s always at least one that seems to come out of nowhere to take over the political agenda.